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What is Lucas critique

In 1976, Robert Lucas argued that economic models built to capture the relationship between variables on the basis of past behaviour could produce unreliable predictions if economic circumstances change. The Lucas critique criticises efforts to predict the impact of a policy in the future according to previous responses.

© Crown Copyright. Material taken from HM-Treasury. Reproduced under the terms and conditions of the Click-Use Licence.

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Term created / updated 2007-03-29 15:49:14

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